{"id":3510,"date":"2026-06-25T07:57:01","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T07:57:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/china-oil-reserve-days-of-supply\/"},"modified":"2026-08-18T15:14:08","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T15:14:08","slug":"reserves-petrolieres-de-la-chine-en-jours","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/china-oil-reserve-days-of-supply\/","title":{"rendered":"Combien de jours de r\u00e9serves la Chine d\u00e9tient-elle\u00a0? Les chiffres r\u00e9els du plus grand stock de p\u00e9trole au monde."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>China holds an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil across government and commercial storage, enough for roughly 120 to 130 days of <a href=\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/base-de-connaissances\/\">import cover<\/a>, well beyond the 90-day benchmark the International Energy Agency sets for its members. But the headline number is harder to pin down than it looks, because Beijing publishes nothing and the way you count changes the answer. Here is how the days-of-supply figure is built, why estimates disagree, and what the 2026 stress test revealed about the stockpile&#8217;s real purpose.<\/p>\n<h2>Le nombre et pourquoi il s&#039;agit d&#039;une plage<\/h2>\n<p>La Chine d\u00e9tient des r\u00e9serves de p\u00e9trole brut suffisantes pour couvrir environ 120 \u00e0 130 jours d&#039;importations, soit la plus importante r\u00e9serve au monde. Ce chiffre repose sur des stocks estim\u00e9s \u00e0 1,4 milliard de barils de brut en d\u00e9cembre 2025, contre des importations moyennes d&#039;environ 11,5 millions de barils par jour tout au long de l&#039;ann\u00e9e. En divisant les stocks par le flux quotidien, la r\u00e9serve se situe aux alentours de quatre mois, bien au-del\u00e0 du seuil minimal de 90 jours qui d\u00e9finit la pr\u00e9paration aux situations d&#039;urgence pour les \u00e9conomies avanc\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<p>La raison pour laquelle la r\u00e9ponse est une fourchette plut\u00f4t qu&#039;un chiffre unique est que personne en dehors de P\u00e9kin ne conna\u00eet le stock exact, et le d\u00e9nominateur est arbitraire. L&#039;Agence am\u00e9ricaine d&#039;information sur l&#039;\u00e9nergie (EIA), qui \u00e9tablit l&#039;estimation publique la plus cr\u00e9dible, reconstitue les stocks chinois \u00e0 partir des importations, des exportations, des op\u00e9rations de raffinage et des donn\u00e9es de p\u00e9troliers et de satellites fournies par des tiers, pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment parce qu&#039;il n&#039;existe pas de chiffres officiels. Des analystes ind\u00e9pendants, utilisant des hypoth\u00e8ses l\u00e9g\u00e8rement diff\u00e9rentes concernant la consommation, les importations ou la d\u00e9finition des r\u00e9serves, arrivent \u00e0 des chiffres allant d&#039;une centaine de jours \u00e0 plus de 130 jours.<\/p>\n<p>Ce qui est incontestable, c&#039;est la direction et l&#039;ampleur de la strat\u00e9gie. La r\u00e9serve de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 chinoise est importante, elle n&#039;a cess\u00e9 de cro\u00eetre et, selon toute m\u00e9thode raisonnable, elle se situe au-dessus de la norme internationale. Les questions int\u00e9ressantes portent sur la mani\u00e8re dont ce chiffre est calcul\u00e9, les raisons de ses variations et son objectif pr\u00e9cis.<\/p>\n<h2>Deux couches, un stock<\/h2>\n<p>Les r\u00e9serves chinoises se composent de deux couches qui, ensemble, forment un unique tampon strat\u00e9gique. La premi\u00e8re est la R\u00e9serve nationale de p\u00e9trole, constitu\u00e9e de p\u00e9trole brut d\u00e9tenu par l&#039;\u00c9tat et stock\u00e9 dans des installations d\u00e9di\u00e9es. Elle \u00e9tait estim\u00e9e \u00e0 environ 360 millions de barils fin 2025, un niveau comparable \u00e0 celui des r\u00e9serves strat\u00e9giques am\u00e9ricaines. La seconde couche, bien plus importante, correspond aux stocks commerciaux d\u00e9tenus par les raffineurs et les compagnies p\u00e9troli\u00e8res d&#039;\u00c9tat, estim\u00e9s \u00e0 environ un milliard de barils.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>r\u00e9serve strat\u00e9gique du gouvernement<\/strong> Les r\u00e9serves nationales officielles de p\u00e9trole, soit le p\u00e9trole brut d\u00e9tenu par l&#039;\u00c9tat dans des r\u00e9servoirs sp\u00e9cialement con\u00e7us \u00e0 cet effet, \u00e9taient estim\u00e9es \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 360 millions de barils fin 2025. Il s&#039;agit de la couche la plus comparable aux r\u00e9serves strat\u00e9giques d\u00e9clar\u00e9es par d&#039;autres gouvernements, et celle que P\u00e9kin contr\u00f4le le plus directement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Actions de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s commerciales<\/strong> Environ un milliard de barils sont d\u00e9tenus par les raffineurs et les compagnies p\u00e9troli\u00e8res nationales. Depuis 2024, l&#039;\u00c9tat aurait demand\u00e9 \u00e0 ses compagnies p\u00e9troli\u00e8res nationales d&#039;ajouter des barils d&#039;urgence aux stocks commerciaux, ce qui signifie que cette couche fonctionne d\u00e9sormais comme une seconde r\u00e9serve strat\u00e9gique, plus importante de fait.<\/li>\n<li><strong>La fronti\u00e8re floue entre eux<\/strong> Parce que l&#039;\u00c9tat peut s&#039;appuyer sur les stocks commerciaux en cas de crise, les analystes prennent de plus en plus en compte les deux types de stocks conjointement. L&#039;EIA consid\u00e8re explicitement les stocks commerciaux chinois comme faisant partie de son total strat\u00e9gique, ce qui explique pourquoi les r\u00e9serves chinoises sont bien sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 celles mesur\u00e9es ailleurs en se basant uniquement sur les stocks gouvernementaux.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>La norme des 90 jours et pourquoi la Chine n&#039;en fait pas partie.<\/h2>\n<p>Le point de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence en mati\u00e8re de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 p\u00e9troli\u00e8re est la r\u00e8gle de l&#039;Agence internationale de l&#039;\u00e9nergie (AIE) selon laquelle les pays membres doivent d\u00e9tenir des stocks d&#039;urgence \u00e9quivalents \u00e0 au moins 90 jours d&#039;importations nettes. Le calcul est pr\u00e9cis\u00a0: les stocks \u00e9ligibles en fin de mois divis\u00e9s par la moyenne des importations nettes quotidiennes de l&#039;ann\u00e9e civile pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente. Cette obligation ne s&#039;applique qu&#039;aux importateurs nets, et non aux exportateurs nets. Le d\u00e9nominateur est constitu\u00e9 des importations nettes et non de la consommation totale, une distinction qui modifie sensiblement le calcul de la dur\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>La Chine n&#039;est pas membre de l&#039;AIE et n&#039;y est soumise \u00e0 aucune obligation formelle. Pourtant, ses r\u00e9serves estim\u00e9es entre 120 et 130 jours d\u00e9passent largement la norme de 90 jours. Il s&#039;agit d&#039;une strat\u00e9gie d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9e. P\u00e9kin a constitu\u00e9 une r\u00e9serve sup\u00e9rieure au minimum international tout en conservant une totale libert\u00e9 quant \u00e0 sa mesure, sa divulgation et son utilisation. Cette r\u00e9serve a \u00e9t\u00e9 constitu\u00e9e de mani\u00e8re intensive jusqu&#039;en 2025, avec un ajout moyen de 1,1 million de barils par jour, profitant de la baisse des prix pour remplir ses capacit\u00e9s de stockage plus rapidement que ne le justifierait la seule demande.<\/p>\n<p>Cette comparaison explique \u00e9galement pourquoi les chiffres publi\u00e9s varient selon les sources. Mesur\u00e9s par rapport aux importations nettes, comme le fait l&#039;AIE, les r\u00e9serves chinoises en jours s&#039;affichent d&#039;une certaine mani\u00e8re. Mesur\u00e9s par rapport aux importations totales ou \u00e0 la consommation int\u00e9rieure totale, qui d\u00e9passe 16 millions de barils par jour, ces m\u00eames barils donnent un chiffre diff\u00e9rent, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement inf\u00e9rieur. Les deux estimations peuvent \u00eatre exactes, c&#039;est pourquoi les rapports rigoureux indiquent une fourchette et pr\u00e9cisent la base de calcul.<\/p>\n<h2>La valeur strat\u00e9gique d&#039;un nombre inconnu<\/h2>\n<p>La Chine consid\u00e8re ses niveaux de stocks comme un secret d&#039;\u00c9tat, et cette opacit\u00e9 constitue en elle-m\u00eame un outil. Une r\u00e9serve non divulgu\u00e9e complique la t\u00e2che des march\u00e9s et des concurrents pour s&#039;y opposer ou anticiper ses mouvements. Si les concurrents ignorent le montant des stocks d\u00e9tenus par P\u00e9kin ou le moment de ses achats, ils ne peuvent pr\u00e9voir ses interventions sur le march\u00e9 physique, et P\u00e9kin conserve ainsi la libert\u00e9 de constituer ou de lib\u00e9rer des stocks sans donner de signal.<\/p>\n<p>C\u2019est pourquoi tous les chiffres cr\u00e9dibles pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s dans cet article sont des estimations. L\u2019EIA, l\u2019AIE et des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de donn\u00e9es sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9es comme Vortexa, Kpler et Kayrros d\u00e9duisent les stocks chinois \u00e0 partir de flux observables\u00a0: importations d\u00e9barqu\u00e9es, p\u00e9trole brut raffin\u00e9, exportations exp\u00e9di\u00e9es et remplissage des r\u00e9servoirs, tels qu\u2019observ\u00e9s par satellite. La m\u00e9thode est fiable mais indirecte, et elle comporte une marge d\u2019erreur qu\u2019aucune analyse ne peut totalement \u00e9liminer tant que les chiffres officiels restent confidentiels.<\/p>\n<p>Pour quiconque se fie \u00e0 ce chiffre, il convient de le consid\u00e9rer comme une estimation \u00e9tay\u00e9e par une fourchette, et non comme une statistique publi\u00e9e. Les estimations de 1,4 milliard de barils et de 120 \u00e0 130 jours font consensus parmi les analystes reconnus, mais il s&#039;agit de reconstructions, et elles doivent \u00eatre cit\u00e9es comme telles.<\/p>\n<h2>Le test de r\u00e9sistance de 2026<\/h2>\n<p>En 2026, les r\u00e9serves chinoises ont cess\u00e9 d&#039;\u00eatre un simple tampon th\u00e9orique. Lorsque le conflit au Moyen-Orient a perturb\u00e9 le trafic dans le d\u00e9troit d&#039;Ormuz et que les membres de l&#039;AIE ont coordonn\u00e9 une lib\u00e9ration d&#039;urgence, les ann\u00e9es d&#039;accumulation de la Chine se sont av\u00e9r\u00e9es payantes. P\u00e9kin a puis\u00e9 dans ses importants stocks commerciaux pour approvisionner ses raffineries nationales et aurait autoris\u00e9 les compagnies p\u00e9troli\u00e8res d&#039;\u00c9tat \u00e0 utiliser ses r\u00e9serves \u00e0 mesure que la perturbation se prolongeait, tout en \u00e9vitant un pr\u00e9l\u00e8vement d\u00e9stabilisateur sur la r\u00e9serve strat\u00e9gique officielle. Le tampon a absorb\u00e9 le choc, conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 sa vocation premi\u00e8re.<\/p>\n<p>Le tableau ci-dessous d\u00e9taille les composantes des stocks chinois, la base de calcul de chacune et l&#039;impact de chaque niveau sur le chiffre des jours d&#039;approvisionnement.<\/p>\n<p>Cet \u00e9pisode a \u00e9galement mis en lumi\u00e8re la double vocation de la r\u00e9serve. Elle constitue une assurance contre une rupture d&#039;approvisionnement physique et un levier strat\u00e9gique, un stock suffisamment important pour permettre \u00e0 la Chine de surmonter une flamb\u00e9e des prix ou un blocus sans \u00eatre contrainte d&#039;intervenir sur le march\u00e9 au pire moment. Pour les fournisseurs d&#039;\u00e9nergie et les analystes, la le\u00e7on \u00e0 retenir est que le nombre de jours de stock n&#039;est pas une simple curiosit\u00e9 comptable. Il mesure la marge de man\u0153uvre dont dispose P\u00e9kin pour agir, ou pour attendre.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Chine d\u00e9tient environ 1,4 milliard de barils de p\u00e9trole brut dans ses installations de stockage gouvernementales et commerciales, soit l&#039;\u00e9quivalent de 120 \u00e0 130 jours de couverture des importations, bien au-del\u00e0 des 90 jours de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence fix\u00e9s par l&#039;Agence internationale de l&#039;\u00e9nergie pour ses \u00c9tats membres. Cependant, ce chiffre est plus difficile \u00e0 \u00e9tablir qu&#039;il n&#039;y para\u00eet, car P\u00e9kin ne publie aucune information et la m\u00e9thode de calcul influe sur le r\u00e9sultat. Voici comment est calcul\u00e9 le nombre de jours d&#039;approvisionnement, les raisons des divergences d&#039;estimations et les enseignements du test de r\u00e9sistance de 2026 quant \u00e0 la v\u00e9ritable finalit\u00e9 de ces r\u00e9serves.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":1886,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"p54_article_data":"{\"meta\":{\"kicker\":\"Insight \u00b7 Energy\",\"topics\":[\"Energy\",\"Capital\",\"Strategy\"],\"title\":\"How Many Days of Supply Does China Hold? The Real Numbers Behind the World's Largest Oil Stockpile\",\"dek\":\"China holds an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil across government and commercial storage, enough for roughly 120 to 130 days of import cover, well beyond the 90-day benchmark the International Energy Agency sets for its members. But the headline number is harder to pin down than it looks, because Beijing publishes nothing and the way you count changes the answer. Here is how the days-of-supply figure is built, why estimates disagree, and what the 2026 stress test revealed about the stockpile's real purpose.\",\"date\":\"25 June 2026\",\"readTime\":\"9 min read\",\"author\":\"Project 54\",\"listenTime\":\"17 min listen\"},\"quickAnswer\":{\"q\":\"How many days of supply does China hold in its oil reserves?\",\"a\":\"China holds an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil as of late 2025, split between roughly 360 million barrels in government-held strategic reserves and around 1 billion barrels in commercial stocks at refiners and state companies. Measured against imports of about 11.5 million barrels per day, that is roughly 120 to 130 days of import cover, comfortably above the 90-day standard the International Energy Agency requires of its members. The exact figure is an estimate, not an official number, because China does not publish its inventory levels, and the answer shifts depending on whether you measure against net imports, total imports or full consumption.\"},\"takeaways\":[\"China's combined government and commercial crude inventories reached an estimated 1.4 billion barrels by December 2025, the largest emergency oil stockpile in the world.\",\"That equates to roughly 120 to 130 days of import cover, above the International Energy Agency's 90-day benchmark, though China is not an IEA member and sets its own targets.\",\"The number is an estimate assembled from trade and refining data, not an official figure, because Beijing treats its inventory levels as strategically sensitive and publishes nothing.\",\"How you count matters: days of cover differ sharply depending on whether the denominator is net imports, total imports or domestic consumption, which is why credible sources quote a range.\",\"The 2026 conflict was the real test: China leaned on commercial stockpiles to keep refiners supplied without drawing down the official reserve, proving the buffer works as designed.\"],\"sections\":[{\"id\":\"number\",\"q\":\"How many days of oil supply does China actually hold?\",\"h\":\"The Number, and Why It Is a Range\",\"p\":[\"China holds enough crude oil to cover roughly 120 to 130 days of imports, the largest such buffer of any country. The figure rests on an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of crude in storage as of December 2025, set against imports that averaged about 11.5 million barrels per day across the year. Divide the stock by the daily flow and the buffer lands in the four-month range, well clear of the 90-day floor that defines emergency preparedness for advanced economies.\",\"The reason the answer is a range rather than a single figure is that nobody outside Beijing knows the precise stock, and the denominator is a choice. The US Energy Information Administration, which assembles the most credible public estimate, reconstructs China's inventories from imports, exports, refining runs and third-party tanker and satellite data, precisely because official numbers do not exist. Independent analysts using slightly different assumptions about consumption, imports or what counts as a reserve arrive at figures from the low 100s to over 130 days.\",\"What is not in dispute is the direction and the scale. China's buffer is large, it has been growing, and on any reasonable method it sits above the international benchmark. The interesting questions are how the number is built, why it varies, and what it is actually for.\"]},{\"id\":\"count\",\"q\":\"What goes into China's oil stockpile, and how is it counted?\",\"h\":\"Two Layers, One Stockpile\",\"p\":[\"China's reserve is best understood as two layers that together act as a single strategic buffer. The first is the official State Petroleum Reserve, government-held crude in dedicated storage, estimated at around 360 million barrels at the end of 2025, a level broadly comparable to the United States strategic reserve. The second, and far larger, layer is commercial inventory held by refiners and state oil companies, estimated at around 1 billion barrels.\"],\"pillars\":[{\"n\":\"01\",\"t\":\"Government strategic reserve\",\"d\":\"The official State Petroleum Reserve, crude held by the state in purpose-built tankage, estimated near 360 million barrels at the end of 2025. This is the layer most comparable to the strategic reserves other governments report, and the one Beijing controls most directly.\"},{\"n\":\"02\",\"t\":\"Commercial company stocks\",\"d\":\"Around 1 billion barrels held by refiners and national oil companies. Since 2024 the state has reportedly directed its national oil companies to add emergency barrels to commercial stockpiles, which means this layer now functions as a second, larger strategic reserve in all but name.\"},{\"n\":\"03\",\"t\":\"The blurred line between them\",\"d\":\"Because the state can lean on commercial stocks in a crisis, analysts increasingly count both layers together. The EIA explicitly treats China's commercial inventories as part of its strategic total, which is why China's stockpile dwarfs reserves measured on a government-only basis elsewhere.\"}]},{\"id\":\"benchmark\",\"q\":\"How does China compare to the IEA 90-day benchmark?\",\"h\":\"The 90-Day Standard, and Why China Sits Outside It\",\"p\":[\"The reference point for oil security is the International Energy Agency's rule that member countries hold emergency stocks equal to at least 90 days of net imports. The metric is precise: eligible stocks at month-end divided by average daily net imports over the previous calendar year. Net importers carry the obligation, net exporters do not, and the denominator is net imports rather than total consumption, a distinction that materially changes the day count.\",\"China is not an IEA member and carries no formal obligation, yet its estimated 120 to 130 days of cover comfortably exceeds the 90-day standard. That is a deliberate posture. Beijing has built a buffer larger than the international minimum while retaining full freedom over how it is measured, disclosed and used. It accumulated aggressively through 2025, adding an average of 1.1 million barrels per day, taking advantage of softer prices to fill tankage faster than demand alone would warrant.\",\"The comparison also explains why headline figures differ across sources. Measured against net imports, as the IEA does, China's days of cover read one way. Measured against total imports or full domestic consumption, which runs above 16 million barrels per day, the same barrels translate into a different and usually smaller number. Both can be quoted accurately, which is why careful reporting gives a range and names the basis.\"]},{\"id\":\"opaque\",\"q\":\"Why does China not publish its reserve levels?\",\"h\":\"The Strategic Value of an Unknown Number\",\"p\":[\"China treats its inventory levels as a state secret, and the opacity is itself a tool. An undisclosed reserve is harder for markets and rivals to trade against or plan around. If competitors cannot see how much Beijing holds or when it is buying, they cannot anticipate its moves in the physical market, and Beijing preserves the freedom to build or release stock without sending a signal.\",\"That is why every credible figure in this article is an estimate. The EIA, the IEA, and specialist data firms such as Vortexa, Kpler and Kayrros infer China's stocks from observable flows: imports landed, crude refined, exports shipped, and tanks filled as seen from satellites. The method is sound but indirect, and it carries a margin of error that no amount of analysis can fully close while the official numbers stay sealed.\",\"For anyone relying on the figure, the practical implication is to treat it as a well-supported estimate with a range, not a published statistic. The 1.4 billion barrels and the 120 to 130 days are the consensus of serious analysts, but they are reconstructions, and they should be cited as such.\"]},{\"id\":\"stress\",\"q\":\"Did China's reserve hold up under real pressure in 2026?\",\"h\":\"The 2026 Stress Test\",\"p\":[\"The <a href=\\\"\/is-china-still-stockpiling-oil-2026\/\\\">stockpile<\/a> stopped being a theoretical buffer in 2026. When conflict in the Middle East disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz and IEA members coordinated an emergency release, China's years of accumulation paid off. Beijing leaned on its large commercial inventories to keep domestic refiners supplied, and reportedly allowed state oil firms to tap reserves as the disruption dragged on, while avoiding a destabilising draw on the official strategic layer. The buffer absorbed the shock, which is precisely what it was built to do.\",\"The table below sets out the components of China's stockpile, the basis on which each is measured, and what each layer means for the days-of-supply figure.\",\"The episode also clarified the reserve's dual purpose. It is an insurance policy against a physical supply shock, and it is strategic leverage, a stock large enough that China can ride out a price spike or a blockade without being forced into the market at the worst possible moment. For energy <a href=\\\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/knowledge-database\/\\\">supplier<\/a>s and analysts, the lesson is that the days-of-supply number is not an accounting curiosity. It is a measure of how much room Beijing has to act, or to wait.\",\"For why that number is an estimate at all, and why credible sources disagree by hundreds of millions of barrels, see our dossier on <a href=\\\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/china-oil-reserve-estimates-vary-sources\/\\\">why every estimate of the stockpile disagrees<\/a>.\"],\"table\":{\"cols\":[\"Layer\",\"Estimated volume (Dec 2025)\",\"What it means for days of cover\"],\"rows\":[[\"Government strategic reserve\",\"About 360 million barrels\",\"The directly state-controlled core, comparable to other national reserves\"],[\"Commercial company stocks\",\"About 1 billion barrels\",\"The larger buffer, now treated as strategic since NOCs were told to add emergency barrels\"],[\"Combined total\",\"About 1.4 billion barrels\",\"Roughly 120 to 130 days of import cover, the world's largest\"],[\"IEA benchmark\",\"90 days of net imports\",\"The international floor China exceeds, though it carries no formal obligation\"],[\"The denominator caveat\",\"Imports about 11.5 mb\/d; consumption above 16 mb\/d\",\"Days of cover shift with the basis used, which is why estimates vary\"]]}}],\"media\":{\"image\":{\"src\":\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/scientist-research-testing.jpg\",\"label\":\"A reserve built for strategic scale: China's stockpile is sized to outlast a supply shock, not just bridge one\",\"credit\":\"Project 54\"},\"infographicLabel\":\"How China's 1.4 billion barrels translate into days of import cover\",\"pdf\":{\"href\":\"\/wp-content\/themes\/p54-blueprint\/assets\/pdf\/china-oil-reserve-days-of-supply.pdf\",\"title\":\"China's Days of Oil Supply: Briefing Deck\",\"meta\":\"9-slide briefing \u00b7 Project 54\"},\"video\":{\"src\":\"\/wp-content\/themes\/p54-blueprint\/assets\/media\/china-oil-reserve-days-of-supply-video.mp4\",\"label\":\"China's Secret 1.4 Billion Barrels\",\"duration\":\"2:46\"},\"podcast\":{\"src\":\"\/wp-content\/themes\/p54-blueprint\/assets\/media\/china-oil-reserve-days-of-supply-podcast.m4a\",\"title\":\"China's Secret 1.4 Billion Barrels\",\"ep\":\"P54 Energy Growth Brief\",\"duration\":\"17:03\"}},\"poll\":{\"q\":\"China holds the world's largest oil buffer. What do you read as its primary purpose?\",\"note\":\"Your selection maps how you interpret Beijing's stockpiling. No vote tallies, this is a reflection tool.\",\"options\":[{\"id\":\"a\",\"label\":\"Insurance against a physical supply shock\",\"insight\":\"The classic reading. With imports near 11.5 million barrels a day and most crude arriving by sea, a four-month buffer is straightforward energy security against a blockade or disruption.\"},{\"id\":\"b\",\"label\":\"Strategic leverage on price and timing\",\"insight\":\"A buffer this large means China is never forced to buy at the worst moment. It can ride out a spike, wait out a rival, and accumulate when prices are soft, which is exactly what it did through 2025.\"},{\"id\":\"c\",\"label\":\"Preparation for a prolonged conflict\",\"insight\":\"Several analysts read the pace of accumulation as war-readiness, a stock deliberately built to outlast a confrontation with the United States and its allies. The 2026 disruption tested the thesis.\"},{\"id\":\"d\",\"label\":\"A deliberately unreadable signal\",\"insight\":\"By publishing nothing, Beijing keeps the number itself as a tool. Rivals cannot plan against a reserve they cannot see, and China keeps full freedom to build or release without telegraphing intent.\"}]},\"faq\":[{\"q\":\"How many days of oil supply does China hold?\",\"a\":\"Roughly 120 to 130 days of import cover, based on an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of crude in storage as of late 2025 against imports of about 11.5 million barrels per day. The figure is an estimate, not an official number, and it varies depending on whether days are measured against net imports, total imports or domestic consumption.\"},{\"q\":\"How much crude oil does China hold in total?\",\"a\":\"An estimated 1.4 billion barrels as of December 2025, split between around 360 million barrels in the government-held strategic reserve and around 1 billion barrels in commercial stocks at refiners and state oil companies. This is the largest emergency oil stockpile in the world. The full barrel count, layer by layer, is set out in <a href=\\\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/china-strategic-petroleum-reserve-barrels\/\\\">our dossier sizing China's strategic petroleum reserve<\/a>.\"},{\"q\":\"How does China compare to the IEA 90-day benchmark?\",\"a\":\"China's estimated 120 to 130 days of import cover exceeds the International Energy Agency's standard that members hold at least 90 days of net imports. China is not an IEA member, so it carries no formal obligation and sets its own targets, but it has chosen to hold a buffer larger than the international minimum. <a href=\\\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/china-iea-90-day-oil-stockholding-benchmark\/\\\">Read the full answer: how China compares to the IEA 90-day benchmark<\/a>.\"},{\"q\":\"Why is China's days-of-supply figure only an estimate?\",\"a\":\"Because China does not publish its oil inventory levels, treating them as strategically sensitive. Bodies such as the EIA and IEA, along with data firms like Vortexa and Kpler, reconstruct the stock from observable imports, exports, refining runs and satellite tank readings. The method is robust but indirect, so the figure carries a margin of error and should be cited as an estimate. Full method breakdown in our dossier on <a href=\\\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/china-oil-reserve-estimates-vary-sources\/\\\">why every estimate of China's oil stockpile disagrees<\/a>.\"},{\"q\":\"Why does the days-of-supply number vary between sources?\",\"a\":\"Mainly because of the denominator. Days of cover can be measured against net imports, total imports, or full domestic consumption, and each gives a different result for the same volume of stock. China's consumption runs above 16 million barrels per day while net imports are lower, so a stock that covers about 130 days of imports covers fewer days of total consumption. Credible sources state the basis they use. Full method breakdown in our dossier on <a href=\\\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/china-oil-reserve-estimates-vary-sources\/\\\">why every estimate of China's oil stockpile disagrees<\/a>.\"}],\"newsletter\":{\"kicker\":\"The Energy Growth Brief\",\"title\":[\"Get the next\",\"intelligence drop\"],\"body\":\"Join energy and industrial leaders getting our marketing, AI-growth and revenue-architecture intelligence, direct, no filler.\",\"cadence\":\"Twice monthly\",\"reach\":\"Gulf \u00b7 MENA \u00b7 Asia \u00b7 Europe\",\"cta\":\"Subscribe\",\"note\":\"No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. We read every reply.\",\"success\":\"You're on the list\",\"successBody\":\"Welcome to The Energy Growth Brief, watch your inbox for the next dispatch.\"},\"related\":[{\"title\":\"China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2026: Levels, Capacity, Days of Supply, and the Commercial Signal\",\"topic\":\"Energy\",\"href\":\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/china-strategic-petroleum-reserve-2026\/\"},{\"title\":\"China's Plan to Add 11 Oil Reserve Sites in 2025-2026: Why it Matters\",\"topic\":\"Energy\",\"href\":\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/chinas-plan-to-add-11-oil-reserve-sites-in-2025-2026-what-matters-for-energy-professionals\/\"},{\"title\":\"The Capital Conundrum: Why Asia's 238 Billion Oil and Gas Capex Surge Is Redefining Risk\",\"topic\":\"Capital\",\"href\":\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/the-capital-conundrum-why-asias-238-billion-oil-and-gas-capex-surge-is-redefining-risk\/\"},{\"title\":\"OPEC+ and the Monthly-Barrel Era: Why the Cartel Replaced Big Tranches With Cautious Increments\",\"topic\":\"Energy\",\"href\":\"\/opec-monthly-output-increments-2026\/\"},{\"title\":\"Why Every Estimate of China's Oil Stockpile Disagrees, and Which Numbers to Trust\",\"topic\":\"Energy\",\"href\":\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/china-oil-reserve-estimates-vary-sources\/\"}]}","p54_faq":"[{\"q\": \"How many days of oil supply does China hold?\", \"a\": \"Roughly 120 to 130 days of import cover, based on an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of crude in storage as of late 2025 against imports of about 11.5 million barrels per day. The figure is an estimate, not an official number, and it varies depending on whether days are measured against net imports, total imports or domestic consumption.\"}, {\"q\": \"How much crude oil does China hold in total?\", \"a\": \"An estimated 1.4 billion barrels as of December 2025, split between around 360 million barrels in the government-held strategic reserve and around 1 billion barrels in commercial stocks at refiners and state oil companies. This is the largest emergency oil stockpile in the world.\"}, {\"q\": \"How does China compare to the IEA 90-day benchmark?\", \"a\": \"China's estimated 120 to 130 days of import cover exceeds the International Energy Agency's standard that members hold at least 90 days of net imports. China is not an IEA member, so it carries no formal obligation and sets its own targets, but it has chosen to hold a buffer larger than the international minimum.\"}, {\"q\": \"Why is China's days-of-supply figure only an estimate?\", \"a\": \"Because China does not publish its oil inventory levels, treating them as strategically sensitive. Bodies such as the EIA and IEA, along with data firms like Vortexa and Kpler, reconstruct the stock from observable imports, exports, refining runs and satellite tank readings. The method is robust but indirect, so the figure carries a margin of error and should be cited as an estimate.\"}, {\"q\": \"Why does the days-of-supply number vary between sources?\", \"a\": \"Mainly because of the denominator. Days of cover can be measured against net imports, total imports, or full domestic consumption, and each gives a different result for the same volume of stock. China's consumption runs above 16 million barrels per day while net imports are lower, so a stock that covers about 130 days of imports covers fewer days of total consumption. Credible sources state the basis they use.\"}]","p54_media":"","p54_comments_enabled":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[92,125],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","category-strategy"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3510","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3510"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3510\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4122,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3510\/revisions\/4122"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1886"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}