{"id":3608,"date":"2026-07-11T02:26:02","date_gmt":"2026-07-11T02:26:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/did-china-stop-stockpiling-oil-hormuz-crisis\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T12:01:45","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T12:01:45","slug":"la-chine-a-t-elle-cesse-de-constituer-des-stocks-de-petrole-pendant-la-crise-dormuz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/did-china-stop-stockpiling-oil-hormuz-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"La Chine a-t-elle cess\u00e9 de constituer des stocks de p\u00e9trole pendant la crise d&#039;Ormuz\u00a0? Que r\u00e9v\u00e8lent r\u00e9ellement les donn\u00e9es de 2026\u00a0?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Lorsque le d\u00e9troit d&#039;Ormuz s&#039;est ferm\u00e9 d\u00e9but 2026 et que le Brent a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les 120 dollars, le premier importateur mondial de p\u00e9trole a pris une d\u00e9cision inattendue\u00a0: il s&#039;est largement retir\u00e9 du march\u00e9 et a puis\u00e9 dans les stocks qu&#039;il avait constitu\u00e9s au cours de l&#039;ann\u00e9e 2025. Ce dossier reconstitue les achats r\u00e9els de la Chine mois par mois, explique pourquoi les r\u00e9serves gouvernementales ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 peine utilis\u00e9es et pourquoi la phase de reconstitution des stocks \u00e0 venir pourrait s&#039;av\u00e9rer plus importante que la crise elle-m\u00eame. La Chine ne publie aucune donn\u00e9e officielle sur ses r\u00e9serves\u00a0; par cons\u00e9quent, tous les chiffres relatifs aux stocks sont des estimations d&#039;analystes et sont signal\u00e9s comme tels.<\/p>\n<h2>Projet 2025\u00a0: Assurance achet\u00e9e \u00e0 60\u00a0dollars<\/h2>\n<p>En 2025, la Chine a appliqu\u00e9 la strat\u00e9gie habituelle d&#039;un importateur strat\u00e9gique en p\u00e9riode de prix bas\u00a0: acheter plus de p\u00e9trole brut qu&#039;elle n&#039;en consommait. Tout au long de l&#039;ann\u00e9e, elle a augment\u00e9 ses stocks d&#039;environ 1,1 million de barils par jour, alors que le prix du p\u00e9trole avoisinait les 60 dollars. D\u00e9but 2026, ses r\u00e9serves totales de brut \u00e9taient estim\u00e9es entre 1,39 et 1,4 milliard de barils, soit l&#039;\u00e9quivalent d&#039;environ 120 jours d&#039;importations nettes, selon les estimations de l&#039;EIA. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/04\/23\/china-oil-stockpile-iran-war\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Axios<\/a> et l&#039;analyse par le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bakerinstitute.org\/research\/chinas-strait-hormuz-oil-security-and-escalation-playbook\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Institut Baker<\/a>. Ces chiffres sont des estimations d&#039;analystes\u00a0: la Chine consid\u00e8re ses niveaux de r\u00e9serves comme un secret d&#039;\u00c9tat, une politique que nous avons examin\u00e9e dans notre dossier compl\u00e9mentaire sur <a href=\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/pourquoi-la-chine-ne-publie-t-elle-pas-ses-reserves-de-petrole\/\">Pourquoi la Chine ne publie-t-elle pas ses niveaux de r\u00e9serves ?<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>La crise qui a mis \u00e0 l&#039;\u00e9preuve cette position a d\u00e9but\u00e9 fin f\u00e9vrier 2026, lorsque des frappes coordonn\u00e9es am\u00e9ricano-isra\u00e9liennes contre l&#039;Iran ont entra\u00een\u00e9 la fermeture du d\u00e9troit d&#039;Ormuz \u00e0 la navigation. Plus de 90 % du flux quotidien d&#039;environ 10 millions de barils de p\u00e9trole par jour ont \u00e9t\u00e9 restreints\u00a0; le Brent a franchi la barre des 100 dollars le 8 mars pour la premi\u00e8re fois en quatre ans et a culmin\u00e9 \u00e0 environ 126 dollars. L&#039;AIE a qualifi\u00e9 cette situation de plus importante perturbation de l&#039;approvisionnement de l&#039;histoire du march\u00e9 p\u00e9trolier mondial, selon le rapport de crise compil\u00e9 par <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/from-chokepoint-to-crisis-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-global-oil-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Brookings<\/a>. Les 32 membres de l&#039;AIE ont r\u00e9agi par un l\u00e2cher coordonn\u00e9 de 400 millions de barils, le plus important de l&#039;histoire de l&#039;agence, selon <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/3\/23\/which-countries-have-strategic-oil-reserves-and-how-much\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Al Jazeera<\/a>, un \u00e9v\u00e9nement que nous avons couvert dans notre <a href=\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/reserves-petrolieres-durgence-de-laie-2026\/\">Dossier des r\u00e9serves d&#039;urgence de l&#039;AIE<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Ralentir, puis inverser la tendance\u00a0: de 430\u00a0000 barils par jour en entr\u00e9e \u00e0 3 millions en sortie<\/h2>\n<p>L&#039;ordre mensuel est important car la version courante, selon laquelle la Chine a cess\u00e9 d&#039;acheter, occulte une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 plus instructive. Les importations de f\u00e9vrier s&#039;\u00e9levaient \u00e0 11,7 millions de barils par jour. En avril, les donn\u00e9es douani\u00e8res indiquaient environ 9,25 millions de barils, soit une baisse de 2,4 millions sur un an, d&#039;apr\u00e8s les calculs du chroniqueur de Reuters, Clyde Russell. Pourtant, m\u00eame en avril, la Chine continuait de constituer des stocks\u00a0: la production des raffineries \u00e9tait suffisamment faible pour qu&#039;environ 430\u00a0000 barils par jour soient encore stock\u00e9s, selon les calculs de Russell, tandis que Vortexa estime ce volume \u00e0 580\u00a0000 barils par jour. Le mouvement s&#039;est ralenti avant de s&#039;inverser.<\/p>\n<p>Le mois de mai a marqu\u00e9 un tournant. Les douanes ont enregistr\u00e9 des importations de 7,8 millions de barils par jour, soit le chiffre mensuel le plus bas depuis octobre 2017. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/06\/08\/china-oil-iran-war-us-israel-energy-prices-strait-hormuz.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">CNBC<\/a> et le suivi de l&#039;American Petroleum Institute, tandis que le syst\u00e8me de suivi des navires Kpler a mesur\u00e9 des arriv\u00e9es encore plus faibles, \u00e0 6,78 millions, selon <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/sectors\/energy\/articles\/china-oil-buying-pause-won-230000498.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Prix du p\u00e9trole via Yahoo Finance<\/a>. Selon les estimations de Kpler, avec une production des raffineries avoisinant les 13,5 millions de barils par jour, l&#039;\u00e9cart ne peut provenir que des stocks\u00a0: en juin, on estime que 3 millions de barils par jour ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9lev\u00e9s des r\u00e9serves. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-06-26\/china-s-collapsing-crude-oil-imports-to-fall-further-in-june\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Bloomberg<\/a>. En quatre mois, la Chine est pass\u00e9e d&#039;une production de pr\u00e8s d&#039;un demi-million de barils par jour \u00e0 une consommation six fois sup\u00e9rieure.<\/p>\n<p>La provenance des barils est le d\u00e9tail qui r\u00e9v\u00e8le la strat\u00e9gie. La r\u00e9duction de la production a touch\u00e9 essentiellement les stocks commerciaux et industriels, notamment plus de 46 millions de barils de p\u00e9trole brut iranien accumul\u00e9s dans des r\u00e9servoirs flottants et des cuves sous douane dans des ports comme Dalian et Zhoushan. Les raffineries artisanales du Shandong ont \u00e9puis\u00e9 leurs stocks bon march\u00e9 de p\u00e9trole brut iranien, certaines n&#039;ayant conserv\u00e9 ces stocks que jusqu&#039;au d\u00e9but juin avant de r\u00e9duire leur production. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/4\/3\/how-chinas-teapot-refineries-are-cushioning-it-from-iran-war-oil-crisis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Al Jazeera<\/a> et Kpler. La r\u00e9serve strat\u00e9gique de p\u00e9trole du gouvernement, estim\u00e9e \u00e0 environ 360 millions de barils selon l&#039;EIA, serait rest\u00e9e quasiment intacte. P\u00e9kin a puis\u00e9 dans ses r\u00e9serves commerciales et pr\u00e9serv\u00e9 ses r\u00e9serves souveraines.<\/p>\n<h2>L\u2019acheteur privil\u00e9gi\u00e9 sensible aux prix\u00a0: pourquoi prendre du recul \u00e9tait la strat\u00e9gie<\/h2>\n<p>Les analyses convergeaient sur la strat\u00e9gie, et non sur la d\u00e9tresse. Marco Dunand, directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de Mercuria, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 au FT Commodities Summit en avril que la Chine avait puis\u00e9 dans ses stocks commerciaux d&#039;avant la crise et s&#039;\u00e9tait de fait retir\u00e9e du march\u00e9 face \u00e0 la flamb\u00e9e des prix, pr\u00e9voyant un retour aux achats dans les semaines qui suivraient. <a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Latest-Energy-News\/World-News\/China-Oil-Buying-Set-to-Return-After-Stockpile-Drawdown.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Prix du p\u00e9trole<\/a>. Ye Lin, de Rystad Energy, a interpr\u00e9t\u00e9 cette r\u00e9duction des stocks comme une gestion rationnelle des marges\u00a0: laisser les stocks diminuer progressivement plut\u00f4t que de surench\u00e9rir sur un march\u00e9 tendu avec des marges de raffinage fortement n\u00e9gatives. <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/05\/31\/oil-prices-mystery-supply-iran-war-inventories-china-stockpiles-refinery-imports\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Fortune<\/a>. Le stock constitu\u00e9 \u00e0 60 dollars \u00e9tait une assurance ; la crise \u00e9tait la r\u00e9clamation.<\/p>\n<p>Ce comportement a \u00e9galement contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 stabiliser le march\u00e9 mondial. La r\u00e9duction des importations chinoises a repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 environ les trois quarts de la baisse mondiale des achats de p\u00e9trole brut pendant la crise, selon <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/06\/10\/oil-prices-stable-china-imports-strait-of-hormuz-iran-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Fortune<\/a>, C\u2019est en grande partie pourquoi le Brent a culmin\u00e9 \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 126 dollars, et non aux 200 dollars envisag\u00e9s par certaines banques. Un acheteur majeur, sensible aux prix et qui r\u00e9duit sa demande, agit en quelque sorte comme un amortisseur pour tous les autres acteurs. Comme l\u2019a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Rush Doshi, du Council on Foreign Relations, \u00e0 CNBC en mars\u00a0: \u201c\u00a0La Chine a consacr\u00e9 les vingt derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es \u00e0 r\u00e9duire sa d\u00e9pendance aux flux p\u00e9troliers maritimes.\u00a0\u201d La crise a d\u00e9montr\u00e9 l\u2019immense flexibilit\u00e9 que ces deux d\u00e9cennies d\u2019efforts ont permis d\u2019acqu\u00e9rir.<\/p>\n<p>Le risque \u00e0 venir r\u00e9side dans le d\u00e9bouclement. Muyu Xu, de Kpler, a soutenu que le v\u00e9ritable choc p\u00e9trolier pourrait ne commencer que lorsque la Chine recommencera \u00e0 acheter. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kpler.com\/blog\/why-the-real-oil-shock-may-only-begin-when-china-returns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Kpler<\/a>, JPMorgan pr\u00e9voit un rebond des importations \u00e0 partir d&#039;ao\u00fbt, sous l&#039;impulsion des r\u00e9approvisionnements orchestr\u00e9s par les \u00c9tats plut\u00f4t que d&#039;une demande sous-jacente. Remplir un syst\u00e8me commercial \u00e0 sec tout en se reconstituant pour atteindre les objectifs de stockage du gouvernement implique des achats progressifs et soutenus sur un march\u00e9 qui se normalise encore apr\u00e8s la crise, pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment au moment o\u00f9 Aramco et l&#039;OPEP+ relancent l&#039;offre en Asie, une convergence que nous analysons dans notre article connexe sur <a href=\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/la-chine-continue-t-elle-a-constituer-des-stocks-de-petrole-en-2026\/\">La question de savoir si la Chine continuera d&#039;accro\u00eetre ses r\u00e9serves en 2026<\/a>. Pour les op\u00e9rateurs B2B du secteur de l&#039;\u00e9nergie, le signal est clair\u00a0: la demande chinoise de reconstitution des stocks \u00e0 partir de la fin de l&#039;\u00e9t\u00e9 est l&#039;un des rares contrepoids haussiers sur un march\u00e9 par ailleurs exc\u00e9dentaire en 2026.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Chine a-t-elle cess\u00e9 de constituer des stocks de p\u00e9trole pendant la crise d&#039;Ormuz de 2026\u00a0? Donn\u00e9es mensuelles sur les importations et les stocks, raisons pour lesquelles les r\u00e9serves strat\u00e9giques de la Chine sont rest\u00e9es intactes et risques de reconstitution des stocks.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":1690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"p54_article_data":"{\"meta\":{\"kicker\":\"Insight \u00b7 Analysis\",\"topics\":[\"Analysis\"],\"title\":\"Did China Stop Stockpiling Oil During the Hormuz Crisis? What the 2026 Data Actually Shows\",\"dek\":\"When the Strait of Hormuz closed in early 2026 and Brent spiked above 120 dollars, the world's biggest oil importer did something its critics did not expect: it largely stepped out of the market and started living off the stockpile it had spent 2025 building. This dossier reconstructs what China's buying actually did month by month, why the government reserve was barely touched, and why the restocking phase ahead may matter more than the crisis itself. China publishes no official reserve data, so all storage figures are analyst estimates and are marked as such.\",\"date\":\"11 July 2026\",\"readTime\":\"9 min read\",\"author\":\"Project 54\",\"listenTime\":\"24:02\"},\"quickAnswer\":{\"q\":\"Did China stop stockpiling oil during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis?\",\"a\":\"Yes, and it went further: China first slowed its stockpiling, still adding an estimated 430,000 to 580,000 barrels a day to storage in April per Reuters and Vortexa calculations, then flipped to net drawdowns of its roughly 1.4 billion barrel inventory as crude imports collapsed about 40 percent, from 11.7 million barrels a day in February to 7.8 million in May, the lowest since 2017 per customs data. The draws came overwhelmingly from commercial and corporate stocks; analysts report the government strategic petroleum reserve of roughly 360 million barrels was left nearly untouched. China publishes no official reserve figures, so all storage numbers are analyst estimates. Kpler, JPMorgan and Mercuria expected buying to return from around August 2026, a state-directed restocking wave that could itself become the next price shock.\"},\"takeaways\":[\"China entered the crisis prepared: through 2025 it added roughly 1.1 million barrels a day to inventories at around 60 dollar oil, reaching an estimated 1.39 to 1.4 billion barrels, about 120 days of net imports, per EIA estimates cited by Axios and the Baker Institute.\",\"The reversal was fast but not instant: in April, refiners were still adding an estimated 430,000 to 580,000 barrels a day to storage per Reuters and Vortexa, even as imports fell 2.4 million barrels a day year on year.\",\"By May, imports had collapsed to 7.8 million barrels a day per customs data, the lowest since October 2017, with Kpler tracking even lower, and June saw an estimated 3 million barrels a day drawn from storage per Bloomberg.\",\"The draws came from commercial and bonded stocks, including Iranian crude held in floating and bonded storage; the roughly 360 million barrel government SPR was reportedly left nearly untouched, per EIA estimates and analyst reporting.\",\"China's withdrawal cushioned the world: its import cut was roughly three quarters of the global decline, per Fortune, helping keep Brent from the 200 dollar scenarios some predicted, and its return to buying is the next thing to watch.\"],\"sections\":[{\"id\":\"setup\",\"q\":\"What position did China hold going into the crisis?\",\"h\":\"The 2025 Build: Insurance Bought at 60 Dollars\",\"p\":[\"China spent 2025 doing exactly what a strategic importer is supposed to do at the bottom of a price cycle: buying more crude than it burned. Through 2025 it added roughly 1.1 million barrels a day to inventories with oil near 60 dollars, entering 2026 with total crude in storage estimated at 1.39 to 1.4 billion barrels, equivalent to roughly 120 days of net imports, per EIA estimates reported by <a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/04\/23\/china-oil-stockpile-iran-war\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">Axios<\/a> and analysis by the <a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.bakerinstitute.org\/research\/chinas-strait-hormuz-oil-security-and-escalation-playbook\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">Baker Institute<\/a>. Those figures are analyst estimates: China treats reserve levels as a state secret, a policy we examined in our companion dossier on <a href=\\\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/why-china-doesnt-publish-oil-reserves\/\\\">why China does not publish its reserve levels<\/a>.\",\"The crisis that tested the position began in late February 2026, when coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to normal transit. More than 90 percent of the strait's roughly 10 million barrels a day of flows were restricted; Brent crossed 100 dollars on 8 March for the first time in four years and peaked around 126 dollars, and the IEA called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, per the crisis reporting compiled by <a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/from-chokepoint-to-crisis-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-global-oil-markets\/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">Brookings<\/a>. The IEA's 32 members responded with a 400 million barrel coordinated release, the largest in the agency's history, per <a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/3\/23\/which-countries-have-strategic-oil-reserves-and-how-much\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">Al Jazeera<\/a>, an event we covered in our <a href=\\\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/iea-emergency-oil-reserves-2026\/\\\">IEA emergency reserves dossier<\/a>.\"]},{\"id\":\"what-happened\",\"q\":\"What did China's buying actually do, month by month?\",\"h\":\"Slow, Then Flip: From 430,000 Barrels a Day In to 3 Million Out\",\"p\":[\"The monthly sequence matters because the popular version, China stopped buying, flattens a more instructive story. February imports ran at 11.7 million barrels a day. By April, customs data showed roughly 9.25 million, down 2.4 million year on year, per Reuters columnist Clyde Russell's calculations. Yet even in April, China was still stockpiling: refinery runs were low enough that an estimated 430,000 barrels a day still flowed into storage on Russell's arithmetic, with Vortexa putting the April build higher at 580,000 barrels a day. The machine slowed before it reversed.\",\"May was the flip. Customs recorded imports of 7.8 million barrels a day, the lowest monthly figure since October 2017, per <a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/06\/08\/china-oil-iran-war-us-israel-energy-prices-strait-hormuz.html\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">CNBC<\/a> and the American Petroleum Institute's tracking, while ship-tracker Kpler measured arrivals even lower at 6.78 million, per <a href=\\\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/sectors\/energy\/articles\/china-oil-buying-pause-won-230000498.html\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">OilPrice via Yahoo Finance<\/a>. With refinery runs near 13.5 million barrels a day on Kpler's estimates, the gap could only come from inventory: June saw an estimated 3 million barrels a day drawn from storage, per <a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-06-26\/china-s-collapsing-crude-oil-imports-to-fall-further-in-june\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">Bloomberg<\/a>. In four months China swung from building nearly half a million barrels a day to drawing six times that.\",\"Where the barrels came from is the detail that reveals the strategy. The drawdown fell overwhelmingly on commercial and corporate inventories, including more than 46 million barrels of Iranian crude that had accumulated in floating storage and bonded tanks at ports like Dalian and Zhoushan. Shandong's independent teapot refiners ran down their cheap stored Iranian feedstock, with some reportedly holding crude only into early June before cutting runs, per <a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/4\/3\/how-chinas-teapot-refineries-are-cushioning-it-from-iran-war-oil-crisis\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">Al Jazeera<\/a> and Kpler. The government strategic petroleum reserve itself, roughly 360 million barrels on EIA estimates, was reportedly left nearly untouched. Beijing spent the commercial buffer and preserved the sovereign one.\"],\"table\":{\"cols\":[\"Month (2026)\",\"Crude imports (mb\/d)\",\"Storage flow (analyst estimates)\"],\"rows\":[[\"February\",\"11.7 (customs)\",\"Building, pre-crisis pace ~1 mb\/d\"],[\"March\",\"Crisis begins; Brent peaks ~126 dollars\",\"Buying slows as prices spike\"],[\"April\",\"~9.25 (customs, per Reuters\/Russell)\",\"Still adding ~430-580 kb\/d (Russell; Vortexa)\"],[\"May\",\"7.8 (customs, lowest since Oct 2017); 6.78 per Kpler\",\"Net draw begins; teapots burn stored Iranian crude\"],[\"June\",\"~8 (estimates)\",\"~3 mb\/d drawn from storage (Bloomberg); SPR ~untouched\"],[\"From August (expected)\",\"Rebound forecast\",\"State-directed restocking, per JPMorgan\"]]}},{\"id\":\"interpretation\",\"q\":\"Was this weakness or strategy?\",\"h\":\"The Price-Sensitive Superbuyer: Why Stepping Back Was the Plan\",\"p\":[\"Analyst readings converged on strategy, not distress. Mercuria chief executive Marco Dunand told the FT Commodities Summit in April that China had been drawing down pre-crisis commercial stocks and had effectively stepped back from the market as prices surged, predicting a return to buying within weeks, per <a href=\\\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Latest-Energy-News\/World-News\/China-Oil-Buying-Set-to-Return-After-Stockpile-Drawdown.html\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">OilPrice<\/a>. Rystad Energy's Ye Lin read the drawdown as rational margin management: letting inventories fall gradually rather than bidding into a tight market with refining margins deeply negative, per <a href=\\\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/05\/31\/oil-prices-mystery-supply-iran-war-inventories-china-stockpiles-refinery-imports\/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">Fortune<\/a>. The stockpile bought at 60 dollars was insurance; the crisis was the claim.\",\"The behaviour also stabilised the global market. China's import cut accounted for roughly three quarters of the worldwide decline in crude buying during the crisis, per <a href=\\\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/06\/10\/oil-prices-stable-china-imports-strait-of-hormuz-iran-war\/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">Fortune<\/a>, which is a large part of why Brent peaked near 126 dollars rather than the 200 dollar scenarios some banks war-gamed. A price-sensitive superbuyer that withdraws demand at the top functions, in effect, as a shock absorber for everyone else. As Rush Doshi of the Council on Foreign Relations told CNBC in March, \\\"China has taken the last 20 years to reduce some of its dependence on maritime oil flows.\\\" The crisis demonstrated how much optionality that two-decade effort has bought.\",\"The forward risk is the unwind. Kpler's Muyu Xu argued that the real oil shock may only begin when China returns to buying, per <a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.kpler.com\/blog\/why-the-real-oil-shock-may-only-begin-when-china-returns\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener\\\">Kpler<\/a>, and JPMorgan expects imports to rebound from August, driven by state-directed restocking rather than underlying demand. Refilling a drawn-down commercial system while rebuilding toward the government's storage ambitions means sustained incremental buying into a market still normalising after the crisis, exactly as Aramco and OPEC+ push returning supply into Asia, a collision we analyse in our companion piece on <a href=\\\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/is-china-still-stockpiling-oil-2026\/\\\">whether China is still adding to its reserves in 2026<\/a>. For energy B2B operators, the timing signal is concrete: Chinese restocking demand from late summer is one of the few bullish counterweights in an otherwise oversupplied 2026 market.\",\"The same chokepoint shock forced a different answer in Delhi, where the reserve bill has now been handed to a listed producer. See <a href=\\\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/india-strategic-petroleum-reserve-ongc\/\\\">India builds its oil buffer<\/a>.\"]}],\"media\":{\"image\":{\"src\":\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/14.jpg\",\"label\":\"Crude storage at twilight: tank farms like these, commercial rather than sovereign, absorbed the Hormuz shock\",\"credit\":\"Project 54\"},\"infographicLabel\":\"China during the Hormuz crisis: imports 11.7 to 7.8 mb\/d Feb-May, ~3 mb\/d storage draws by June, government SPR ~untouched (analyst estimates)\",\"pdf\":{\"href\":\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/did-china-stop-stockpiling-oil-hormuz-crisis.pdf\",\"title\":\"Did China Stop Stockpiling Oil During the Hormuz Crisis? Briefing Deck\",\"meta\":\"Project 54\"},\"video\":{\"src\":\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/did-china-stop-stockpiling-oil-hormuz-crisis-video.mp4\",\"label\":\"Did China Stop Stockpiling Oil During the Hormuz Crisis? What the 2026 Data Actually Shows\",\"duration\":\"7:56\",\"poster\":\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/did-china-stop-stockpiling-oil-hormuz-crisis-poster.jpg\"},\"podcast\":{\"src\":\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/did-china-stop-stockpiling-oil-hormuz-crisis-podcast.m4a\",\"title\":\"Did China Stop Stockpiling Oil During the Hormuz Crisis? What the 2026 Data Actually Shows\",\"ep\":\"P54 Energy Growth Brief\",\"duration\":\"24:02\"}},\"poll\":{\"q\":\"What is the most important lesson from China's crisis behaviour?\",\"note\":\"Your selection maps how you read the strategy. No vote tallies, this is a reflection tool.\",\"options\":[{\"id\":\"a\",\"label\":\"Build the buffer before the crisis, at low prices\",\"insight\":\"The insurance reading. The 2025 build at 60 dollars is what made stepping back at 120 dollars possible. Optionality is bought in calm markets, never during the storm.\"},{\"id\":\"b\",\"label\":\"Spend the commercial buffer, protect the sovereign one\",\"insight\":\"The tiering reading. Beijing drew bonded and corporate stocks while leaving the government SPR nearly untouched, preserving the last-resort reserve for a longer or worse crisis.\"},{\"id\":\"c\",\"label\":\"Price discipline beats panic buying\",\"insight\":\"The market reading. By refusing to bid into a 120 dollar market, China cushioned global prices and protected its own refining margins. Withdrawal was leverage, not weakness.\"},{\"id\":\"d\",\"label\":\"Watch the restocking, not the crisis\",\"insight\":\"The forward reading. Kpler and JPMorgan both point to the return of Chinese buying from around August as the next structural force on prices, potentially the deferred shock.\"}]},\"faq\":[{\"q\":\"How much oil did China have in storage when the Hormuz crisis began?\",\"a\":\"Analyst estimates put China's total crude inventories at roughly 1.39 to 1.4 billion barrels entering 2026, equivalent to about 120 days of net imports, after adding roughly 1.1 million barrels a day through 2025, per EIA estimates cited by Axios and the Baker Institute. Of that, the government strategic petroleum reserve is estimated at roughly 360 million barrels. China publishes no official figures, so all of these are estimates.\"},{\"q\":\"How far did China's oil imports fall during the crisis?\",\"a\":\"From 11.7 million barrels a day in February 2026 to 7.8 million in May per customs data, a roughly 40 percent collapse and the lowest monthly reading since October 2017. Ship-tracker Kpler measured May arrivals even lower, at 6.78 million barrels a day. The two figures differ because customs records cleared volumes while trackers count physical arrivals; both directions agree.\"},{\"q\":\"Did China use its strategic petroleum reserve during the crisis?\",\"a\":\"Reportedly almost not at all. The drawdowns came overwhelmingly from commercial and corporate inventories, including bonded storage of Iranian crude at ports like Dalian and Zhoushan and the stocks held by Shandong's independent refiners. The government SPR of roughly 360 million barrels on EIA estimates was left nearly untouched, preserving the sovereign buffer for a deeper emergency. All storage figures are analyst estimates.\"},{\"q\":\"Why did China stop buying instead of paying up for crude?\",\"a\":\"Price sensitivity and margin arithmetic. Chinese buyers withdrew rather than chase barrels above 100 dollars, and Rystad Energy's Ye Lin noted that with refining margins deeply negative it was rational to let inventories fall rather than bid into a tight market. The 2025 stockpile, built near 60 dollars, existed precisely so that China could step back when prices spiked, which is also why its withdrawal helped cap the global price peak.\"},{\"q\":\"When will China start stockpiling oil again?\",\"a\":\"JPMorgan expects Chinese imports to rebound from August 2026, driven by state-directed restocking rather than demand, and Mercuria's Marco Dunand predicted in April that buying would return quickly once prices normalised. Kpler has argued the real oil shock may only begin when China returns to the market, because refilling a drawn-down system means sustained incremental buying colliding with OPEC+ supply returning to Asia.\"}],\"newsletter\":{\"kicker\":\"The Energy Growth Brief\",\"title\":[\"Get the next\",\"intelligence drop\"],\"body\":\"Join energy and industrial leaders getting our marketing, AI-growth and revenue-architecture intelligence, direct, no filler.\",\"cadence\":\"Twice monthly\",\"reach\":\"Gulf \u00b7 MENA \u00b7 Asia \u00b7 Europe\",\"cta\":\"Subscribe\",\"note\":\"No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. We read every reply.\",\"success\":\"You're on the list\",\"successBody\":\"Welcome to The Energy Growth Brief, watch your inbox for the next dispatch.\"},\"related\":[{\"title\":\"Is China Still Adding to Its Oil Reserves in 2026? The Record Build, the Hormuz Shock and What Comes Next\",\"topic\":\"Analysis\",\"href\":\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/is-china-still-stockpiling-oil-2026\/\"},{\"title\":\"How Many Days of Supply Does China Hold? The Real Numbers Behind the World's Biggest Oil Stockpile\",\"topic\":\"Analysis\",\"href\":\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/china-oil-reserve-days-of-supply\/\"},{\"title\":\"Why Doesn't China Publish Its Oil Reserve Levels? Inside Beijing's Strategic Opacity\",\"topic\":\"Analysis\",\"href\":\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/why-china-doesnt-publish-oil-reserves\/\"},{\"title\":\"IEA Emergency Oil Reserves in 2026: The Largest Coordinated Release in History\",\"topic\":\"Analysis\",\"href\":\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/iea-emergency-oil-reserves-2026\/\"},{\"title\":\"India Builds Its Oil Buffer: Why ONGC Is Now Funding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve\",\"topic\":\"Policy\",\"href\":\"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/india-strategic-petroleum-reserve-ongc\/\"}],\"listenTime\":\"24:02\"}","p54_faq":"","p54_media":"","p54_comments_enabled":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[92,125],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","category-strategy"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3608","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3608"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3608\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3632,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3608\/revisions\/3632"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectfifty4.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}